By Christophe Berenguer, Antoine Grall, Carlos Guedes Soares
Advances in defense, Reliability and threat administration includes the papers provided on the twentieth eu safeguard and Reliability (ESREL 2011) annual convention in Troyes, France, in September 2011. The books covers quite a lot of issues, together with: coincidence and Incident research; Bayesian tools; predicament and Emergency administration; choice Making below threat; Dynamic Reliability; Fault prognosis, diagnosis and process well-being administration; Fault Tolerant regulate and structures; Human elements and Human Reliability; upkeep Modelling and Optimisation; Mathematical equipment in Reliability and Safety. Read more...
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Extra resources for Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management : ESREL 2011
In Kristiansen, Winther & Natvig 2011, a Bayesian hypothesis testing approach for finding upper bounds for probabilities that pairs of software components fail simultaneously is described in detail. This approach consists of two main steps: 1) establishing prior probability distributions for probabilities that pairs of software components fail simultaneously and 2) updating these prior probability distributions by performing statistical testing. In this paper, the focus is on the first step in the Bayesian hypothesis testing approach, and two procedures for establishing a prior probability distribution for the simultaneous failure probability qij are proposed.
The frequency classes and severity classes from the FMECA were used to set the probability on each of the nodes in the Bayesian network. The model calculates the probability of initiated fire based on background knowledge and the assumptions made in the analysis by the specialists. FMECA is a systematic method to identify possible failure modes of a system and their effect on the system, but FMECA is not suitable for identification of combinations of failures. However BBN modelling is well suited for analysing the combinations between failures such as in this example.
Further on, safety activities observations/monitoring in terms of SMS audit (EC, 1996), ARAMIS safety culture (ARAMIS, 2006) and violation motivation (Mason, 1997) surveys results were compared with three incident cases analyzed (safety outcomes) according to the 3CA (Kingston, 2002) and NRI MORT (Frei, 2002) methods. Summaries of the results of the internal SMS audit carried out by the author, as well as results of both questionnaire surveys on multiple company sites among 58 workers/supervisors are presented.
Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management : ESREL 2011 by Christophe Berenguer, Antoine Grall, Carlos Guedes Soares